Christina

Brezezinski and Snowcroft in the Far East, p 113-156

The general theme to this discussion was that the need for U.S./Asian relations to be characterized by openness, flexibility, and respect.

CHINA
Snowcroft and Brzezinski both believe there is reason to be optimistic about America's relationship with China in the future and China's role in the global affairs of the near future. Some reasons they cite for this optimism are as follows:

1. "Chinese leadership is not guided by some Manichaean ideology in which their future depends on the imposition of their value system on the world... they're guided much more by the thought that they have to be part of the world..."
2. The post-WWII political landscape is perceived as a "new world order governed by open systems" in which open discourse is encouraged and secrecy is no longer a motivation for China, who has come to realize that they need the rest of the world (for raw materials, for the global market, etc). "China wants to join the system, and it just happens to be a system that pretty open and congenial..."
3. Both sides of the U.S./China relationship realize that there is much to lose if they do not conduct themselves carefully and respectfully.
4. Chinese leadership is committed to the following:
-learning to be a part of the larger global system
-modernization and infusion of its existing political structure with democracy
-Brzezinski cites a yearly conference for top Chinese officials as a reason why he believes
these things. At this conference, leaders attend lectures with titles such as "Better Understanding of the World Economy and Globalization", "Overview of World History with an Emphasis on the Rise and Fall of Imperial Powers", etc.
5. Throughout Chinese history, the Chinese have rarely acted on internal instability by reacting with outward aggression.

However, Brzezinski also states that if there is a domestic upheaval in China, things could be potentially disastrous for everyone. Potential areas of upheaval are said to include the rural element, Tibetan nationals in China, overpopulation and its impact on the increasing unemployed population, etc.




THE GREATER EAST ASIA CO-PROSPERITY SPHERE
When Ignatius asks "Even as China solves its problems with its neighbors, it becomes more of a regional superpower. Should we worry about that?" Brzezinski replied that the U.S. should worry about a bloc of East Asian powers insofar that it signified a diminished American role in the Far East.



NORTH KOREA
North Korea's nuclear status is discussed:
- NK has the capacity to manufacture plutonium nukes (from reprocessed fuel) which are not as dangerous as enriched uranium nukes.
- In addition, plutonium nukes are difficult to manage and not always very effective.
- For those reasons, NK's nuclear test was largely a failure.

China is cited by Brzezinski as the critical player in enforcing any North Korean compliance in nuclear regulations (by making it clear to the North Koreans that they could not count on Chinese support if push came to shove). Brezinski also advocates patience in relations with North Korea, arguing that "unless we are prepared to go to war with North Korea, it's better to have this partial agreement whereby they have some weapons, bu tthey are so unreliable that it would be crazy to start a war with them."



INDIA
Brzezinski worries that the nuclear deal the U.S. signed with India wherein fourteen reactors are excluded from international control constitutes a "preferential and selective proliferation" which damages U.S. credibility.

Brzezinski also argues that India is a "remarkable success as a democracy, but it's also a deceptive success" because "India's social disparities are far more acute than China's... Once the masses begin to be motivated by their personal or group preferences, ethnic dislikes, religious phobias, and social resentments, India could be a very troubled place."


U.S. DEBT TO ASIA

Ignatius poses the concern that Chinese and Japanese loans to offset American debts may be used as leverage in the future, that this trillion dollar debt to Asia might make the U.S. vulnerable.

Snowcroft argues that this does not constitute a huge concern in terms of security because the Chinese can't use American debt as a weapon against the U.S. without destroying their own wealth. In addition, he argues that "international business is moving from a vertical model... to a horizontal model in which so-called Japanese cars are being built in South Carolina and there is no such thing as an American car or Japanese car."