Christina

• Wayne White, Iran: best to avoid another Gulf crisis, Middle East Institute, 2007

Leaks in January of 2007 suggested that Israel was considering the use of nuclear weapons to try and damage Iran's nuclear infrastructure. White argues it would be "sheer folly" for the U.S. to take preemptive action against Iran's nuclear program for the following reasons:

- this could destabilize the Persian Gulf and Iraq
- this could cause a spike in oil prices
- the U.S. is already bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan
- the operation would necessarily be messy, involving strikes against widely dispersed nuclear targets, air defenses, anti-ship missiles, submarines, etc.
- this sort of campaign would likely take a week and utilize enormous financial and military resources


-Iran might retaliate in any way possible, including:
-attacking US fleets or commercial ships with anti-ship missiles
- launching missiles at countries that the Tehran would "view as complicit in such an attack."
- wreaking havoc in Iraq by utilizing connections with allies in Iraq's Shi'a militias or staging attacks
using Iranian military in Iraq.


In addition, White argues that although the Tehran's leadership is unpopular among many in Iran, the general Iranian population would likely rally to the defense of their country and strengthen the regime, rather than taking the opportunity to criticize the regime.