Christina

"The New Middle East," Richard Haass, Middle East Journal, Nov-Dec. 2006


There are five distinct eras in the history of US involvement
in the Middle East. "The Middle East's next era promises to
be one in which outside actors have a relatively modest impact
and local forcesenjoy the upper hand- and in which the local
actors.. are radicals committed to changing the status quo."


Era 1: Beginning of European conquest in the Middle East,
late 18th century. The end of the Ottoman empire and
Napoleon's easy conquest of Egypt characterize this era.
These events showed Europe that this region was ripe
for conquest.


Era 2: Colonial rule by the UK and France post WWI.


Era 3: Cold War era
Still characterized by outside forces controlling the region,
but US/Soviet Union competition keptthe two powers fairly
occupied, leaving the local states to their own devices
much of the time. Also: June 1967 War was the first time
oil was used as a political-economic weapon- this exposed
the US's vulnerability to supply shortages and oil price
hikes.1979 revolution in Iran also brought down one of the
US's pillars of stability in the region.


Era 4: US Dominance
Characterized by US dominance in the region, "aggressive
but frustrated Iraq, radical but divided and relatively weak
Iran, Israel as the region's most powerful state..., fluctuating
oil prices" and repressive Arab regimes.


Era 5: Current era
Factors that ended Era 4:
- Invasion of Iraq (as a consequence, Sunni-dominated Iraq
can no longer counterbalance the Shiite dominated Iran)
- "failure of traditional Arab regimes to counter the appeal
of radical Islamism"
- globalization has facilitated the growth of radical factions-
easier funding, advertising, and galvanization of movements


What lies ahead:
1. US will continue to dominate the region more than other
foreign powers, but its influence will wane and the US will
increasingly be challenged by other foreign powers. China,
Russia, and many European countries will likely distance
themselves from the US efforts to promote democracy in
the Middle East.
2. Iran and Israel will be the two most powerful states in
the region. Iran because it is wealthy and influential with
both Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel because it possesses the
only modern economy and nuclear capacity.
3. Peace between Israel and Palestine is unlikely.
4. Iraq will "remain messy for years to come, with a weak
central government, a divided society, regular sectarian
violence. At worst, it will become a failed state wracked by an
all-out civil war that will draw in its neighbors."
5. Price of oil will stay high due to high demand from India
and China
6. Militarization, especially private armies, will continue
to grow in areas such as Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine.
7. Terrorism will not abate.
8. "Islam will increasingly fill the political and intellectual
vacuum in the Arab world... Arab nationalism and Arab
socialism are things of the past."
9. "Arab regimes are likely to remain authoritarian and
become more religiously intolerant and anti-American."
Examples: Egypt and Saudi Arabia



Mistakes the U.S. should avoid:
1. Overreliance on military force- it is not very useful against
terrorists and loosely organized militias.
2. Believing that democratization will bring about peace
in the region-it would be more useful to bolster regional
economies and provide basic human necessities, such as
education and health care.

Opportunities the U.S. should seize:
1. "the US should establish a regional forum for Iraq's
neighbors (Turkey and Saudi Arabia in particular" ...
to help manage events in Afghanistan."
2. Use diplomatic tactics such as economic/political
incentives to address Iran's nuclear program and support
of terrorism.
3. Use diplomacy to revive the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
4. Curbing US oil consumption to reduce demand and, in turn,
reduce dependence on the Middle East's resources.